方晓涛, 严正, 王晗, 徐潇源, 陈玥, 许少伦. 考虑“路-车-源-荷”多重不确定性的交通网与配电网概率联合流分析[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(12): 76-87.
引用本文: 方晓涛, 严正, 王晗, 徐潇源, 陈玥, 许少伦. 考虑“路-车-源-荷”多重不确定性的交通网与配电网概率联合流分析[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(12): 76-87.
FANG Xiaotao, YAN Zheng, WANG Han, XU Xiaoyuan, CHEN Yue, XU Shaolun. Analysis on Probabilistic Joint Flow for Transportation Network and Distribution Network Considering Multiple Uncertainties of Road-Vehicle-Source-Load[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(12): 76-87.
Citation: FANG Xiaotao, YAN Zheng, WANG Han, XU Xiaoyuan, CHEN Yue, XU Shaolun. Analysis on Probabilistic Joint Flow for Transportation Network and Distribution Network Considering Multiple Uncertainties of Road-Vehicle-Source-Load[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(12): 76-87.

考虑“路-车-源-荷”多重不确定性的交通网与配电网概率联合流分析

Analysis on Probabilistic Joint Flow for Transportation Network and Distribution Network Considering Multiple Uncertainties of Road-Vehicle-Source-Load

  • 摘要: 随着电动汽车大规模推广应用,交通网与配电网的耦合运行特征日益显著。在此背景下,大量的不确定性因素也将伴随耦合系统交互过程不断传播,并影响交通网与配电网的安全运行。针对不确定性因素的影响量化问题,提出了考虑“路-车-源-荷”多重不确定性因素的交通网与配电网概率联合流分析方法。首先,分别建立交通网概率交通分配模型和配电网概率最优潮流模型,并提出均衡状态下基于蒙特卡洛模拟的分散迭代算法,以实现概率联合流计算;然后,引入基于Sobol’法的全局灵敏度分析方法,量化“路-车-源-荷”多重不确定性因素对交通网与配电网耦合运行状态变量的影响程度,辨识显著影响交通网与配电网概率联合流分布的不确定性因素;最后,将所提方法应用于交通网与配电网耦合算例系统,验证了该方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: With the large-scale popularization and application of electric vehicles, the coupled operation characteristics of the transportation network and distribution network are becoming increasingly significant. In this context, a large number of uncertainties will be propagated along with the interaction process of the coupled system, and affect the safe operation of the transportation network and distribution network. For the quantification of the influence of uncertain factors, an analysis method of probabilistic joint flow for transportation network and distribution network considering multiple uncertainties of road-vehicle-sourceload. First, a probabilistic traffic assignment model of the transportation network and a probabilistic optimal power flow model of the distribution network are established, respectively. A decentralized iterative algorithm based on Monte Carlo simulation in an equilibrium state is proposed for probabilistic joint flow computation. Then, the global sensitivity analysis method based on Sobol’method is introduced to quantify the influence of multiple uncertainties of road-vehicle-source-load on the coupled operation state variables of the transportation network and distribution network, and identify the uncertainties that significantly affect the probabilistic joint flow distribution of the transportation network and distribution network. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a coupled case system of the transportation network and distribution network and its effectiveness is verified by simulation results.

     

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