模型不确定性对自适应闭环紧急控制设计影响的探讨
Discussion on Influence of Model Uncertainties on Closed-loop Adaptive Stability Control Design
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摘要: 探讨了自适应闭环紧急控制技术的高度集中优化的本质及其适用性受模型不确定性的影响。结合工业界在安全防御实践中消化不确定性的实际经验,指出在自适应闭环紧急控制设计中,应充分考虑高度集中优化系统适用的时空条件,复杂大系统闭环控制的框架设计不宜以高度集中优化为唯一设计理念,应在持续改善系统模型精度的同时,寻求摆脱对系统模型精确性依赖的其他方法。建议采用时空分散决策,将不确定性因素可能导致决策错误的风险进行分摊;应重视人在控制决策过程中的作用,并推广实施紧急控制策略适应性的在线校核;应考虑控制目标的弹性化,避免同时追求人为设计的确定性的多个最优目标,并采用风险的观点协调离线和在线预决策。未来应重视人工紧急调度决策支持技术的研究。Abstract: A discussion is presented on the nature of highly-centralized optimization of the closed-loop adaptive stability control technology and the influence of model uncertainties on its suitability.Industrial experiences in dissolving uncertainties in security defense practices are introduced.It is pointed out that for design of security defense framework time-space conditions applicable for highly-centralized optimization system should be taken into full consideration,the conceptual design of a large complex closed-loop system control framework should not be solely based on highly-centralized optimization,other methods of not relying on system modeling accuracy should be developed besides consistently improving modeling accuracy,time-space distributed decision-making should be used to share risks of wrong decisions due to uncertainties,the role of engineers in the decision-making process should be emphasized and on-line verification of the adaptability of emergency control decisions should be widely used,flexibility of control objectives should be considered to avoid seeking simultaneous satisfaction of multi optimal man-made objectives and risk based concept should be used to coordinate on-line and off-line pre-decision-making,and further research into decision support technology of manual emergency control should be conducted.