潘霄, 张明理, 刘德宝, 赵琳. 基于鲁棒多标签生成对抗的风电场日前出力区间预测[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(10): 216-223.
引用本文: 潘霄, 张明理, 刘德宝, 赵琳. 基于鲁棒多标签生成对抗的风电场日前出力区间预测[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(10): 216-223.
PAN Xiao, ZHANG Mingli, LIU Debao, ZHAO Lin. Interval Prediction of Wind Farm Day-ahead Output Based on Robust Multi-label Generative Adversarial[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(10): 216-223.
Citation: PAN Xiao, ZHANG Mingli, LIU Debao, ZHAO Lin. Interval Prediction of Wind Farm Day-ahead Output Based on Robust Multi-label Generative Adversarial[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(10): 216-223.

基于鲁棒多标签生成对抗的风电场日前出力区间预测

Interval Prediction of Wind Farm Day-ahead Output Based on Robust Multi-label Generative Adversarial

  • 摘要: 风力发电不确定性强、波动性大,日前预测精度有待改善。为提高风电日前区间预测效果,提出一种基于鲁棒多标签生成对抗的风电场日前出力区间预测方法。首先,采用皮尔逊相关系数分析风电出力与多种气象因素、历史风电出力间的相关性,构建含数值天气预报气象特征与风电出力的原始数据集。然后,在原始数据集中去除待预测日风电功率,得到聚类数据集开展k-means聚类,获得带簇标签的原始数据集。之后,基于鲁棒性辅助分类生成对抗网络,生成海量带标签场景。最后,根据已知的历史风电出力和数值天气预报获得的特征,确定待预测日的簇标签,在生成场景中按对应簇标签筛选与待预测日风电功率特征相似度高的多个场景,组成相似场景集。基于相似场景集的待预测日风电功率均值及上下限,分别获得待预测日(次日)24个时段的风电功率点预测及区间预测结果。以中国东北某地区实际风电场数据为例验证了所提方法的优越性。

     

    Abstract: Wind power is highly uncertain and volatile, and the day-ahead prediction accuracy of wind power needs to be improved.In order to improve the effect of day-ahead interval prediction for the wind power, an interval prediction method of wind farm dayahead output based on robust multi-label generation adversarial is proposed. First, the Pearson correlation coefficient is used to analyze the correlation between wind power output and various meteorological factors and historical wind power output, and construct an original data set containing meteorological factors of numerical weather prediction(NWP) and wind power output.Then, the predicted daily wind power is removed from the original data set to obtain a clustered data set. The k-means clustering is carried out to get the original data set with cluster labels. Then, many labeled scenarios are generated based on the robust auxiliary classification generation adversarial network. Finally, according to the known historical wind power output and the factors obtained by the NWP, the cluster label of the day to be predicted is determined. In the generated scenarios, multiple scenarios with high similarity to the wind power factors of the day to be predicted are selected according to the corresponding cluster labels to form a similar scenario set. Based on the average value and upper and lower limits of the wind power of the day to be predicted in the similar scenario set, the point prediction and interval prediction results of the wind power in 24 hours on the day to be predicted(the next day) are obtained, respectively. The superiority of the proposed method is verified by taking the actual wind farm data in Northeast China as an example.

     

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