吕闫, 李理, 孙略, 罗雅迪, 陈舒. 基于抽样概率区间修正的典型源荷时序场景生成方法[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2024, 48(17): 141-150.
引用本文: 吕闫, 李理, 孙略, 罗雅迪, 陈舒. 基于抽样概率区间修正的典型源荷时序场景生成方法[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2024, 48(17): 141-150.
LYU Yan, LI Li, SUN Lüe, LUO Yadi, CHEN Shu. Typical Source-Load Temporal Scenario Generation Method Based on Modification of Sampling Probability Interval[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2024, 48(17): 141-150.
Citation: LYU Yan, LI Li, SUN Lüe, LUO Yadi, CHEN Shu. Typical Source-Load Temporal Scenario Generation Method Based on Modification of Sampling Probability Interval[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2024, 48(17): 141-150.

基于抽样概率区间修正的典型源荷时序场景生成方法

Typical Source-Load Temporal Scenario Generation Method Based on Modification of Sampling Probability Interval

  • 摘要: 新型电力系统背景下,构建典型源荷时序场景可为日前、日内电力生产组织提供场景支撑。为进一步提升基于统计学方法生成的时序场景质量,减少典型源荷时序场景数量,提出一种基于抽样概率区间修正的典型源荷时序场景生成方法。首先,考虑新能源历史波动特性对预测误差时序抽样概率区间进行修正,采用首次抽样时刻拉丁超立方抽样和后续时刻修正概率区间随机抽样的形式对时序场景进行抽样生成;其次,基于聚类方法得到典型时序场景;然后,基于源荷“逻辑与”运算,从系统安全角度对典型源荷时序场景组合进行约简;最后,以中国西北某省的实际数据为基础构建IEEE 39节点源荷时序场景算例,验证所提方法的有效性和可行性。

     

    Abstract: In the background of the new power system, constructing typical source-load temporal scenarios can provide scenario support for the day-ahead or intra-day electricity production organizations. To further improve the quality of temporal scenarios generated by statistical methods, and reduce the number of typical source-load temporal scenarios, a method for generating typical source-load temporal scenarios based on the modification of sampling probability interval is proposed. Firstly, considering the historical fluctuation characteristics of renewable energy, the probability interval of the prediction error temporal sampling is modified, and the temporal scenarios are sampled and generated using Latin hypercube sampling at the first sampling point and using random sampling in modified probability interval at subsequent sampling points. Secondly, typical temporal scenarios are obtained based on clustering method. Then, the typical source-load temporal scenario combinations are reduced from the perspective of system security based on the source-load “AND” operation. Finally, based on the actual data from a province in Northwest China, the source-load temporal scenarios for an IEEE 39-bus system are constructed to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

     

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