闫斯哲, 王维庆, 李笑竹, 茹扎洪·斯衣迪克江, 帕克扎提·买买提, 杨桂兴. 多市场机制下省间市场主体交易策略演化分析[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2023, 47(23): 141-151.
引用本文: 闫斯哲, 王维庆, 李笑竹, 茹扎洪·斯衣迪克江, 帕克扎提·买买提, 杨桂兴. 多市场机制下省间市场主体交易策略演化分析[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2023, 47(23): 141-151.
YAN Sizhe, WANG Weiqing, LI Xiaozhu, RUZHAHONG Siyidikejiang, PAKEZHATI Maimaiti, YANG Guixing. Analysis on Trading Strategy Evolution of Inter-provincial Market Players with Multi-market Mechanism[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2023, 47(23): 141-151.
Citation: YAN Sizhe, WANG Weiqing, LI Xiaozhu, RUZHAHONG Siyidikejiang, PAKEZHATI Maimaiti, YANG Guixing. Analysis on Trading Strategy Evolution of Inter-provincial Market Players with Multi-market Mechanism[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2023, 47(23): 141-151.

多市场机制下省间市场主体交易策略演化分析

Analysis on Trading Strategy Evolution of Inter-provincial Market Players with Multi-market Mechanism

  • 摘要: 随着可再生能源配额制等多种机制逐步实施和绿色证书市场的发展,如何提高省间市场主体参与交易的积极性,成为亟需关注的问题。为此,文中对有限理性下省间市场主体的交易行为进行了演化分析。首先,基于碳排放权和绿色证书联合交易市场,利用合作博弈理论分析了市场主体在省间交易中的互动关系;然后,在此基础上利用演化博弈理论对各市场主体在有限理性下的合作策略进行了动态推演;最后,通过基于实际数据构造的算例对省间市场主体的合作策略进行了仿真,并分析了配额任务和可再生能源上网电价对市场主体行为趋势与交易策略的影响。结果表明,所提交易策略不仅有助于平衡市场主体的利益冲突,提高市场主体参与交易的积极性,而且可帮助市场主体选择合适的运营模式,并引导市场发展方向。

     

    Abstract: With the gradual implementation of various mechanisms such as the renewable energy quota system and the development of green certificate market,how to improve the enthusiasm of inter-provincial market players participating in trading has become an urgent concern.Therefore,in this paper,the analysis on the trading behavior evolution of each inter-provincial market player with limited rationality is conducted.First,based on the joint carbon emission right and green certificate trading markets,the interactive relationship among market players in the inter-provincial trading is analyzed by using cooperative game theory.Then,on this basis,the cooperative strategy of each market player with limited rationality is dynamically deduced by using evolutionary game theory.Finally,the cooperative trading strategy of each inter-provincial market player is simulated by constructing the cases based on the actual data,and the effects of quota tasks and renewable energy feed-in tariffs on the behavioral trend and trading strategy of each market player are analyzed.The results show that the proposed trading strategy can not only help to balance the conflict between the interests of market players and improve their enthusiasm for trading,but also help market players choose the appropriate operation mode and guide the direction of market development.

     

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