风电场输出功率超短期预测结果分析与改进
Improvement of Ultra-short-term Forecast for Wind Power
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摘要: 风电场输出功率预测对接入大量风电的电力系统调度及安全稳定运行具有重要意义。文中介绍了2009年10月在现场投运的风电场超短期功率预测系统的多层前馈神经网络模型结构,对系统运行3个月的预测结果进行了分析,对预测模型的系统误差进行了修正,同时采用统计方法修正了风电场尾流效应对预测结果的影响,从而改进了模型的预测精度。改进模型的预测结果得到了改善,均方根误差下降了约6%,平均绝对误差下降了约7%,且预测结果与实测结果相吻合,对于风电场调度具有一定的参考意义。Abstract: Wind power forecast is highly beneficial for the diapatch and stable operation of power system with large-scale of wind power.The model structure of a back propagation artificial neural network(BP-ANN) is introduced for the wind power ultra-short-term forecasting system in operation since October,2009.By analyzing three months’ forecasting results of the model,the system error is calibrated and the impact of wake effects on the forecasting results is also corrected by statistical approach,thus the forecasting precision can be improved.The root mean square errors of modified model are 6% lower and mean absolute errors are 7% lower than those of original model,indicating a significant improvement of the forecasting model.The forecasting results coincide with the field measured results and demonstrate the referential significance for the wind farm dispatch.