蔡菲, 严正, 赵静波, 冯冬涵, 郭军, 胡殿刚. 基于Copula理论的风电场间风速及输出功率相依结构建模[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2013, 37(17): 9-16.
引用本文: 蔡菲, 严正, 赵静波, 冯冬涵, 郭军, 胡殿刚. 基于Copula理论的风电场间风速及输出功率相依结构建模[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2013, 37(17): 9-16.
CAI Fei, YAN Zheng, ZHAO Jingbo, FENG Donghan, GUO Jun, HU Diangang. Dependence Structure Models for Wind Speed and Wind Power Among Different Wind Farms Based on Copula Theory[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2013, 37(17): 9-16.
Citation: CAI Fei, YAN Zheng, ZHAO Jingbo, FENG Donghan, GUO Jun, HU Diangang. Dependence Structure Models for Wind Speed and Wind Power Among Different Wind Farms Based on Copula Theory[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2013, 37(17): 9-16.

基于Copula理论的风电场间风速及输出功率相依结构建模

Dependence Structure Models for Wind Speed and Wind Power Among Different Wind Farms Based on Copula Theory

  • 摘要: 在电力系统规划和运行中,对风能的随机相关性进行建模是获取准确结果中非常重要的环节。鉴于风速分布呈现非线性和尾部相关性模式,区别于应用较为广泛的线性相关分析,文中引入了Copula函数对风电场风速以及输出功率之间的相依结构进行系统建模,建立了多风电场风速及功率的联合分布函数。对甘肃酒泉地区4个风电场风速相依结构的研究表明,对于有一定相关性的2个风电场,其风速之间的相关性呈现非对称的尾部特性,单一Copula函数较难精准表述其相依结构,故构建混合Copula函数,即根据拟合优度检验选取合适的Copula函数的凸组合进行描述更为准确;对福建2个风电场输出功率相依结构的研究表明,Gumbel-Copula适合用于2个风电场输出功率的相依结构建模。最后给出了四维风速的相依结构模型。

     

    Abstract: In the operation and planning of power systems,it is important to model the dependence of random wind energy in order to get accurate results.Different from the widely used linear correlation analysis,the Copula function is introduced for modeling the dependence structure of wind speed and wind power among different wind farms,and the joint distribution functions of wind speed and wind power are established respectively.By studying the actual wind speed data from four wind farms in Jiuquan of Gansu province,it is found that wind speed correlation between each two wind farms shows unsymmetrical thick tail characteristic.As this phenomenon cannot be described by a single kind of Copula function,a mixed Copula function,i.e.convex combination of some single Copula functions,is constructed based on selecting the candidate single Copula functions according to goodness of fit test.By studying the actual wind power data from two wind farms in Fujian province,it is found that Gumbel-Copula function is suitable for modeling the dependence structure between output power of two wind farms.A four-dimensional dependence structure model for wind speed is finally presented.

     

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