Abstract:
The realization of“carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”(i.e.“dual carbon”)for the power system of China is a critical step to achieve the“dual carbon”goals of the whole society, and the decarbonization transition process will profoundly affect the morphological structure of the power system. First, a generation and transmission expansion planning model is proposed with the optimization objective of the total cost to plan and optimize the transition path of“carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”of the power system of China from 2020 to 2060 considering the natural resource endowment of renewable energy areas and the security constraints of power system operation. Secondly, the power structure, the transition results of interprovincial electricity exchange requirement, and the cost in the scenario of carbon neutrality for the power system of China in 2060. At the same time, a variety of scenarios are set to compare and study the influencing factors of carbon emission reduction goal and peak time, and the sensitivity analysis of the capital cost of battery energy storage is carried out. It is found that the key to the transition path of“carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality”of the power system of China is to build a high-proportion clean power supply system and realize the low-carbon transition of power structure through the complementarity of various types of power supplies.Energy storage will provide power deficit regulation, inertia support and various auxiliary services for the system. The new power system needs large capacity interprovincial transmission network to provide power supply support, and will undertake the task of wind power transmission to the load center, presenting a larger scale pattern of“west-to-east electricity transmission and north-tosouth electricity transmission”. To balance the economy and carbon emission reduction process, carbon emission peak time and emission reduction path should be comprehensively planned considering economic, social, environmental, technological and other factors.