含大规模风电场的电力系统旋转备用风险决策模型和方法
Decision-making Model and Method for Spinning Reserve and Risk of Power Systems Integrated with Large-scale Wind Farms
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摘要: 大规模风电场并网后其出力的不确定性增加了系统运营方在制定旋转备用计划时平衡成本与风险之间的难度。为应对这种挑战,首先在考虑风速预测误差、风速实时波动和风电机组故障的情况下对风电功率的随机性进行了分析;然后,建立了以考虑旋转备用容量成本和停电损失的旋转备用成本期望值和条件风险价值为目标的多目标优化模型,并采用多目标免疫优化算法和蒙特卡洛场景模拟法求出旋转备用成本期望和条件风险价值的最优前沿集;最后,采用模糊决策理论确定最终的旋转备用计划。算例结果表明该多目标模型可以有效地求出旋转备用成本期望和条件风险价值的前沿集;模糊风险决策模型比普通风险决策模型扩大了风险容忍系数的有效区间,更能反映风险态度;而考虑条件风险价值的旋转备用优化模型在风险规避方面比仅考虑成本期望的模型更具优势,可以作为旋转备用计划决策者的风险管理工具。Abstract: The uncertainties of wind energy after the grid-connection of large-scale wind farms increase the difficulty in balancing cost and risk during the making of spinning reserve plans.To meet this challenge,first the randomness of wind power is analyzed by taking forecasting errors and real-time fluctuations of wind speeds and wind turbine faults into consideration.Then a multi-objective optimization model is developed with the spinning reserve cost expectation(spinning reserve capacity costs and outage costs considered)and conditional value at risk(CVaR)taken into account.The optimal front set of spinning reserve cost expectation and CVaR are obtained by the multi-objective immune optimization algorithm and the Monte Carlo scenario simulation.Finally,the spinning reserve plan is firmed up based on the fuzzy decision-making theory.The example shows that this multi-objective model is able to effectively find out the front set of cost expectations of spinning reserve and CVaR.Compared with the traditional model,the fuzzy risk decision-making model has expanded the effective range of the risk tolerance coefficient,while better reflecting the risk attitudes.The model considering CVaR has more advantages than that merely considering the cost expectation in terms of risk shunning,and it can be a risk management tool for decision-makers.