刘季昂, 刘友波, 邱高, 王吉利, 丁茂生, 刘挺坚. 基于高斯过程回归的电网运行方式快速置信评价[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(11): 181-190.
引用本文: 刘季昂, 刘友波, 邱高, 王吉利, 丁茂生, 刘挺坚. 基于高斯过程回归的电网运行方式快速置信评价[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(11): 181-190.
LIU Ji'ang, LIU Youbo, QIU Gao, WANG Jili, DING Maosheng, LIU Jianting. Fast Confidence Evaluation of Operation Mode of Power Grid Based on Gaussian Process Regression[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(11): 181-190.
Citation: LIU Ji'ang, LIU Youbo, QIU Gao, WANG Jili, DING Maosheng, LIU Jianting. Fast Confidence Evaluation of Operation Mode of Power Grid Based on Gaussian Process Regression[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(11): 181-190.

基于高斯过程回归的电网运行方式快速置信评价

Fast Confidence Evaluation of Operation Mode of Power Grid Based on Gaussian Process Regression

  • 摘要: 高比例新能源接入使得电网运行不确定性增加、运行方式调整更频繁、评价指标更多。然而,复杂关联的多维指标随运行方式而变化,仅依靠人工已难以准确把握运行方式的优劣,且重复的安全校核易导致评价指标计算缓慢。因此,为提升运行方式调整效率,快速、准确的运行方式评价十分必要。首先,从安全性、稳定性、经济性3个维度提取基于电压-无功直流潮流、暂态稳定评估等计算的指标;然后,通过熵权-模糊层次分析法对多维指标进行融合标定,增强运行方式评价的可观性;最后,为实现运行方式快速评价,引入具备置信解析度的高斯过程回归来构建评价模型。采用改进的IEEE 39节点系统与中国西北某省级电网进行验证,结果表明所提方法能快速、准确、灵活地评价运行方式,可在运行方式编制过程中提供快速调整反馈结果,辅助提升运行方式的编制效率。

     

    Abstract: The integration of high penetration of renewable energy makes the power grid operation more uncertain, the operation mode adjustment more frequent, and the number of evaluation indices much more. However, the multi-dimensional complex and related indices change with the operation mode, and it is difficult to accurately grasp the advantages and disadvantages of the operation mode only depending on manual work. Furthermore, the repeated safety checking can easily lead to the slow calculation of the evaluation indices. Therefore, to improve the efficiency of operation mode adjustment, fast and accurate operation mode evaluation is essential. Firstly, the indices based on the voltage-reactive DC power flow and transient stability assessment are extracted from three dimensions of security, stability, and economy. Secondly, the entropy weight-fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is adopted to fuse and calibrate the multi-dimensional indices to enhance the observability of operation mode evaluation. Finally,the Gaussian process regression with certain interpretability and confidence resolution is introduced to construct the evaluation model to realize the fast evaluation of operation modes. The modified IEEE 39-bus system and a provincial power grid in Northwest China are used for verification. The results show that the proposed method can evaluate the operation mode quickly,accurately, and flexibly, and can provide rapid adjustment feedback results during the operation mode compilation process, helping improve the efficiency of the operation mode preparation.

     

/

返回文章
返回