徐潇源, 王晗, 严正, 鲁卓欣, 康重庆, 谢开贵. 能源转型背景下电力系统不确定性及应对方法综述[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2021, 45(16): 2-13.
引用本文: 徐潇源, 王晗, 严正, 鲁卓欣, 康重庆, 谢开贵. 能源转型背景下电力系统不确定性及应对方法综述[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2021, 45(16): 2-13.
XU Xiaoyuan, WANG Han, YAN Zheng, LU Zhuoxin, KANG Chongqing, XIE Kaigui. Overview of Power System Uncertainty and Its Solutions Under Energy Transition[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2021, 45(16): 2-13.
Citation: XU Xiaoyuan, WANG Han, YAN Zheng, LU Zhuoxin, KANG Chongqing, XIE Kaigui. Overview of Power System Uncertainty and Its Solutions Under Energy Transition[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2021, 45(16): 2-13.

能源转型背景下电力系统不确定性及应对方法综述

Overview of Power System Uncertainty and Its Solutions Under Energy Transition

  • 摘要: 在可再生能源迅速发展、能源结构低碳化转型的背景下,电力系统正由确定性系统向强随机性系统转变,在电力系统分析、规划与运行等各个领域出现了各类应对不确定性的方法与手段。文中分别从不确定性因素建模、不确定性因素影响评估、不确定性环境下决策以及不确定性平抑措施等4个方面,总结已有成果、阐述研究难点、探讨该领域的未来研究方向。指出多学科交叉与融合是不确定性分析方法的发展方向,在广义范围内实现能源平衡是应对不确定性因素的重要手段。

     

    Abstract: In the background of rapid development of renewable energy and low-carbon transformation of energy structure, power systems are changing from deterministic systems to strong stochastic systems. Various methods and means dealing with uncertainty have emerged in various fields such as power system analysis, planning and operation. This paper summarizes the existing achievements, expounds the research difficulties and discusses the future research areas in the field of uncertainty factors modeling,uncertainty factors impact assessment, decision-making in uncertainty environment and uncertainty mitigation measures. It is pointed out that interdisciplinary integration is the development trend of uncertainty analysis methods, and achieving energy balance in a broad range is an important means to deal with uncertainty factors.

     

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