唐成鹏, 张粒子, 邓晖, 肖艳炜. 考虑风险管理的电力市场多时段均衡分析方法[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(10): 171-180.
引用本文: 唐成鹏, 张粒子, 邓晖, 肖艳炜. 考虑风险管理的电力市场多时段均衡分析方法[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(10): 171-180.
TANG Chengpeng, ZHANG Lizi, DENG Hui, XIAO Yanwei. Multi-period Equilibrium Analysis Method for Electricity Market Considering Risk Management[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(10): 171-180.
Citation: TANG Chengpeng, ZHANG Lizi, DENG Hui, XIAO Yanwei. Multi-period Equilibrium Analysis Method for Electricity Market Considering Risk Management[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(10): 171-180.

考虑风险管理的电力市场多时段均衡分析方法

Multi-period Equilibrium Analysis Method for Electricity Market Considering Risk Management

  • 摘要: 均衡分析方法是电力市场运行效率分析及机制设计论证的有力工具,而如何计及差价合同和市场主体风险偏好的影响,以及高效求解多时段均衡模型,已成为使电力市场均衡分析方法实用化亟待解决的问题。从差价合同的确定、考虑风险偏好的电力市场均衡建模、基于多智能体深度强化学习的求解等方面,提出了考虑风险管理的电力市场多时段均衡分析方法。在模型框架方面,分别针对市场化差价合同和政府授权差价合同,提出了基于市场均衡结果合理确定合同价格及其曲线的方法;采用条件风险价值评估市场风险,并建立了发电商报价决策的随机优化模型;结合前瞻性安全约束机组组合和经济调度模型建立了现货市场出清模型,以保证结果的合理性。在求解算法方面,通过改进深度强化学习方法,提出了基于风险管理的多智能体深度强化学习算法,并对模型进行迭代求解。最后,通过算例验证了均衡分析方法的合理性和有效性,并剖析了不同比例市场化差价合同或政府授权差价合同,以及不同风险偏好对市场均衡的影响。

     

    Abstract: An equilibrium analysis method is a powerful tool for the operation efficiency analysis as well as mechanical design and demonstration of electricity market. However, how to consider the influence of contracts for differences(CFDs) and the risk preference of market players, and how to solve the multi-period equilibrium model efficiently have become urgent problems to be solved in the practical application of the equilibrium analysis method for electricity market. In this paper, a multi-period equilibrium analysis method for electricity market considering the risk management is put forward from the aspects of the determination of CFDs, the equilibrium modeling of the electricity market considering risk preference, and the model solving based on the multiagent deep reinforcement learning. In terms of the model framework, the methods for determining the contract price and curve reasonably based on the market equilibrium results are proposed for market-based CFDs and government-authorized CFDs,respectively; by using conditional value-at-risk to measure market risk, the stochastic optimization models for the offer decisions of generators are established; and the spot market clearing model is established by combining forward-looking security-constrained unit commitment(SCUC) and security-constrained economic dispatch(SCED) models to ensure the rationality of the results. For the solving algorithm, with the improvement of the deep reinforcement learning method, a risk-managing multi-agent deep reinforcement learning algorithm is proposed to solve the model iteratively. Finally, the numerical examples verify the rationality and effectiveness of the equilibrium analysis method, and the impact of different ratios of market-based CFDs or governmentauthorized CFDs, and different risk preferences on market equilibrium are analyzed.

     

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