基于离散吸引力模型的用电需求价格弹性矩阵
Power Demand Price Elasticity Matrix Based on Discrete Attraction Model
-
摘要: 分析用户对电价的响应是研究用电需求量随电价变化规律的关键,因此建立一种准确的需求价格弹性矩阵的计算方法十分必要。文中基于离散吸引力模型,依据价格需求弹性的定义,推导出自弹性系数和互弹性系数的计算公式,并通过数学运算,将离散吸引力模型线性化。运用SPSS软件对待估参数进行估计,得到分时电价下的需求价格弹性矩阵。运用该需求价格弹性矩阵结合历史电力需求量数据,可以预测未来时段不同力度的分时电价下的用电需求量。Abstract: Analysis on usersresponse to electricity price is crucial to research on the rules of power demand changing with different prices.Therefore,it is necessary to devise a calculation method of demand price elasticity matrix.Based on the discrete attraction model,the calculation formulae of self-elastic coefficient and cross-elastic coefficient are derived from the definition of demand price elasticity.The discrete attraction model is then linearized through mathematical operation.The SPSS software is used to estimate the parameters and the demand price elasticity matrix can be calculated.The electricity demand in different time-of-use prices can be predicted using the demand price elasticity matrix combined with the historic consumption data.