Abstract: With the investment liberalization of incremental distribution network,the network asset income within the incremental power distribution area will be calculated separately.Both power grid enterprises and social capital will face the investment decision-making under the new situation.The investment profit pattern of incremental distribution network is first analyzed and it is considered that there are multiple uncertainties in the investment return of incremental distribution network.Based on this,a real options based investment decision-making model for incremental distribution network is constructed.Meanwhile,combined with the characteristics of incremental distribution network revenue,the volatility estimation model is constructed by using fuzzy recognition method.Finally,an example is given to verify the validity of the model.