杨茂, 贾梦琦, 张薇, 王勃. 基于功率重构和时序特性约束的长预见期光伏集群功率预测[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2024, 48(15): 102-111.
引用本文: 杨茂, 贾梦琦, 张薇, 王勃. 基于功率重构和时序特性约束的长预见期光伏集群功率预测[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2024, 48(15): 102-111.
YANG Mao, JIA Mengqi, ZHANG Wei, WANG Bo. Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic Cluster in Long Forecasting Period Based on Power Reconstruction and Temporal Characteristic Constraints[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2024, 48(15): 102-111.
Citation: YANG Mao, JIA Mengqi, ZHANG Wei, WANG Bo. Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic Cluster in Long Forecasting Period Based on Power Reconstruction and Temporal Characteristic Constraints[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2024, 48(15): 102-111.

基于功率重构和时序特性约束的长预见期光伏集群功率预测

Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic Cluster in Long Forecasting Period Based on Power Reconstruction and Temporal Characteristic Constraints

  • 摘要: 光伏装机容量的逐渐增大为大规模的光伏并网带来了巨大挑战,突破更长预见期的光伏功率预测有助于电力系统的安全稳定运行。现有研究及应用最长预见期为7 d,为将预见期延长至8~15 d,提出了一种基于功率重构和时序特性约束的长预见期光伏集群功率预测方法。首先,采用近似积分计算日电量和辐照能;其次,基于麻雀搜索算法优化变分模态分解以分解电量及辐照能序列,并采用多元线性回归模型对不同频率的分量进行预测叠加得到电量预测结果;然后,根据出力特性建立约束过程,将电量预测结果重构为光伏功率;最后,将所提方法应用于中国甘肃省某光伏集群,模型在不同季节典型月功率预测的均方根误差平均降低2.55%,验证了方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: The gradual increase of photovoltaic installed capacity has brought great challenges to the large-scale photovoltaic gridconnection, and the photovoltaic power prediction beyond the longer forecasting period is conducive to the safe and stable operation of the power system. The longest forecasting period of existing research and application is 7 days, in order to extend the forecast period to 8~15 days, a power forecasting method for photovoltaic cluster in long forecasting period is proposed based on the power reconstruction and temporal characteristic constraints. Firstly, the daily electricity quantity and irradiation energy are calculated by approximate integral. Secondly, the variational mode decomposition(VMD) is optimized based on sparrow search algorithm(SSA) to decompose the electricity quantity and irradiation energy sequence. Multiple linear regression model is used to forecast and superimpose the components of different frequencies to obtain the electricity quantity forecasting results. Then, a constraint process is established according to the output characteristics, and the electricity quantity forecasting results are reconstructed into photovoltaic power. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a photovoltaic cluster in Gansu Province, China, and the root mean square error of the power forecasting for the proposed model is reduced by 2.55% on average in typical months in different seasons, which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.

     

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