黄易君成, 王志强, 刘文霞, 张帅, 鲁宇. 基于个体时空行为模拟的区域电供暖负荷特性建模[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(11): 85-93.
引用本文: 黄易君成, 王志强, 刘文霞, 张帅, 鲁宇. 基于个体时空行为模拟的区域电供暖负荷特性建模[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2022, 46(11): 85-93.
HUANG Yijuncheng, WANG Zhiqiang, LIU Wenxia, ZHANG Shuai, LU Yu. Characteristic Modeling of Regional Electric Heating Load Based on Individual Spatial-Temporal Behavior Simulation[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(11): 85-93.
Citation: HUANG Yijuncheng, WANG Zhiqiang, LIU Wenxia, ZHANG Shuai, LU Yu. Characteristic Modeling of Regional Electric Heating Load Based on Individual Spatial-Temporal Behavior Simulation[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2022, 46(11): 85-93.

基于个体时空行为模拟的区域电供暖负荷特性建模

Characteristic Modeling of Regional Electric Heating Load Based on Individual Spatial-Temporal Behavior Simulation

  • 摘要: 为准确刻画区域电供暖负荷特性以支撑电网改造和需求侧管理,提出了基于个体时空行为模拟的区域电供暖负荷特性仿真建模方法。该模型引入智能体建模方法,以家庭成员作为最小决策单元,采用家庭成员、家庭网络、住宅区域三层结构。首先,考虑出行行为和人体热舒适度,建立家庭成员供暖温度决策模型;其次,考虑家庭成员情感交互、出行时序及经济因素,建立家庭供暖温度决策模型;最后,考虑天气温度、住宅保暖性能并结合电供暖设备运行策略,建立区域供暖用电负荷模型。采用某住宅区域家庭数据为算例进行仿真,验证了模型的有效性,并对负荷特性的相关性、敏感性因素进行了深入分析。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately describe the characteristics of regional electric heating load, and support the power grid transformation and the demand side management, a simulation modeling method of regional electric heating load characteristics based on individual spatial-temporal behavior simulation is proposed. In this model, an agent-based modeling method is introduced.With family members as the minimum decision-making unit, a three-layer structure of family members, family network and residential area is adopted. Firstly, a heating temperature decision model of family members is established considering travelling behavior and human thermal comfort. Then, a heating temperature decision model for family members is established that takes into account the family members’ emotional interaction, travelling time sequence and economic factors. Finally, considering weather temperature, residential thermal performance and operation strategy for electric heating equipment, a regional heating electricity consumption load model is established. The effectiveness of the model is verified by the simulation of household data in a residential area, and the correlation and sensitivity factors of load characteristics are deeply analyzed.

     

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