基于能值分析和多目标决策法的CCHP-PV-Wind系统综合性能评估研究
Comprehensive performance evaluation of a CCHP-PV-Wind system based on energy analysis and a multi-objective decision method
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摘要: 为充分利用丰富的新能源,满足用户多样化能源的需求,可采用含新能源的系统实现冷热电联供。当新能源作为电源或辅助冷热源时,可减少环境压力,但多种能源形式会导致不确定性、能源利用率低且成本升高,需要新的方法对含新能源的冷热电联供(CCHP-PV-Wind)系统的优劣进行评估。提出采用基于模糊层次分析(Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process,Fuzzy-AHP)和反熵权法(Anti-Entropy Weights,AEW)的多目标决策法(Multi-objective decision-making, MODM),建立指标体系并计算权重。同时引入能值指标来描述系统的可持续发展水平,并利用Copula理论中的Kendall秩相关系数(Kendall’t)处理CCHP和CCHP-PV-Wind系统相关性问题。最后,选取我国西部某城市建筑为研究对象,结合能值理论对CCHP和CCHP-PV-Wind两种系统进行综合评估与分析,研究结果可以为我国新能源的综合利用提供一定参考。Abstract: In order to make full use of abundant new energy resources and meet the demand for diversity of energy use, the system containing new energy resources can be used to realize the combination of heat and power supply. As a power source or auxiliary cold and heat supply, it can reduce environmental pressure. However, various energy forms will lead to uncertain, lower energy use and higher cost. New methods are needed to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of a CCHP-PV-Wind system. A MODM based on Fuzzy-AHP and AEW is proposed to establish an index system and calculate weight. An energy index is introduced to describe the sustainability of the system, and Kendall’t in Copula theory is used to deal with the correlation between CCHP and CCHP-PV-Wind systems. Finally, energy theory is applied to evaluate and analyze both systems based on a selected building in the western part of China. The research results can provide some reference for the comprehensive use of new energy resources in China.