张金龙, 张衡, 程浩忠, 陆建忠, 张啸虎. 考虑台风时空演变的风电容量可信度评估方法[J]. 电力建设, 2024, 45(8): 75-84.
引用本文: 张金龙, 张衡, 程浩忠, 陆建忠, 张啸虎. 考虑台风时空演变的风电容量可信度评估方法[J]. 电力建设, 2024, 45(8): 75-84.
ZHANG Jin-long, ZHANG Heng, CHENG Hao-zhong, LU Jian-zhong, ZHANG Xiao-hu. Reliability Assessment Method of Wind Power Capacity Considering the Spatiotemporal Variation of Typhoons[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2024, 45(8): 75-84.
Citation: ZHANG Jin-long, ZHANG Heng, CHENG Hao-zhong, LU Jian-zhong, ZHANG Xiao-hu. Reliability Assessment Method of Wind Power Capacity Considering the Spatiotemporal Variation of Typhoons[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2024, 45(8): 75-84.

考虑台风时空演变的风电容量可信度评估方法

Reliability Assessment Method of Wind Power Capacity Considering the Spatiotemporal Variation of Typhoons

  • 摘要: 近年来,台风灾害对沿海地区的影响愈加严重。为了更准确地评估台风灾害情况下风电场的可信容量,考虑了台风对输电线路的时空影响,提出了一种考虑台风时空演变对输电线路影响的台风灾害下风电容量可信度评估方法。首先,建立具有时空特性的台风仿真模型,并将输电塔和导线的时变故障概率建模为时变台风强度的函数。其次,考虑了台风对风电出力的影响,构建了风电场出力模型。然后,根据输电线路时变故障概率模型求解故障概率矩阵,并基于蒙特卡洛法抽样获取系统输电线路故障状态,生成故障场景,通过指标计算量化电力系统可靠性。最后,应用IEEE RTS-24基本算例评估台风灾害下风电场的容量可信度,验证了所提方法的可行性。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the impacts of typhoons on coastal areas have become increasingly severe. To more accurately assess the credible capacity of wind farms during typhoon disasters, a method for evaluating the credibility of wind power capacity during typhoon disasters considering the spatiotemporal impact of typhoons on transmission lines was proposed. First, a spatiotemporal typhoon simulation model was established, and the time-varying failure probabilities of transmission towers and conductors were modeled as functions of the time-varying typhoon intensity. Second, the impact of typhoons on the wind power output was considered, and a wind farm output model was constructed. Subsequently, a time-varying fault probability matrix was calculated based on the transmission line time-varying fault probability models, and the system transmission line fault states were sampled using Monte Carlo methods to generate fault scenarios. The reliability of the power system was quantified using performance indicators. Finally, the credibility of the wind farm capacity during typhoons was assessed using the IEEE RTS-24 benchmark case to validate the feasibility of the proposed method.

     

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