魏新迟, 董佳, 时珊珊, 李存斌, 苏运. 基于云模型和随机森林的韧性城市电网风险预警模型[J]. 电力建设, 2024, 45(5): 19-28.
引用本文: 魏新迟, 董佳, 时珊珊, 李存斌, 苏运. 基于云模型和随机森林的韧性城市电网风险预警模型[J]. 电力建设, 2024, 45(5): 19-28.
WEI Xin-chi, DONG Jia, SHI Shan-shan, LI Cun-bin, SU Yun. Enhanced Risk Warning Model for Resilient Urban Power Grid Using Cloud Model and Random Forest[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2024, 45(5): 19-28.
Citation: WEI Xin-chi, DONG Jia, SHI Shan-shan, LI Cun-bin, SU Yun. Enhanced Risk Warning Model for Resilient Urban Power Grid Using Cloud Model and Random Forest[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2024, 45(5): 19-28.

基于云模型和随机森林的韧性城市电网风险预警模型

Enhanced Risk Warning Model for Resilient Urban Power Grid Using Cloud Model and Random Forest

  • 摘要: 相比传统电网,韧性城市电网展现出了出色的适应多种扰动和灾害的能力,但其复杂性也使得韧性城市电网风险预警面临更大的挑战,亟需大数据和机器学习等先进技术的引入。首先,构建韧性城市电网风险评估指标体系,采用主客观结合的综合赋权法对指标赋权,通过大数据技术获取的实时数据流得到韧性城市电网风险评估指标的动态权重;然后,构建韧性城市电网风险评估标准云,计算韧性城市电网风险等级隶属度,确定风险等级;最后,基于随机森林构建韧性城市电网风险预警模型,并进行算例分析,通过与其他模型对比,发现所构建的模型表现出高精度的特征。所建模型具有较好的风险预警效果,从而能够及时采取有效风险管控措施,保障韧性城市电网稳定运行。

     

    Abstract: Resilient urban power grids, while showcasing remarkable adaptability to diverse disturbances and disasters, pose significant challenges in risk warning due to their complexity. This underscores the necessity of integrating advanced technologies such as big data and machine learning. This study proposes a novel approach to resolve these issues. First, a resilient urban power grid risk assessment index system was established, employing a comprehensive weighted approach that combined subjective and objective factors to weigh the indicators. Leveraging real-time data flow obtained through big data technology, dynamic weights for risk assessment indicators were determined. Subsequently, a resilient urban power grid risk assessment standard cloud was developed, and the membership degree of the resilient urban power grid risk level was computed to ascertain the risk level. Finally, a resilient urban power grid risk warning model was formulated using random forest, and a thorough numerical analysis was conducted. Compared with other models, the constructed model exhibited high precision characteristics. The findings demonstrated that the developed model exerted a substantial risk-warning effect, enabling timely implementation of effective risk control measures to ensure the stable operation of resilient urban power grids.

     

/

返回文章
返回