宋家康, 赵建勇, 孙海霞, 王华雷, 年珩, 张森. 基于多目标协同训练的风电功率预测提升算法[J]. 电力工程技术, 2023, 42(6): 232-240. DOI: 10.12158/j.2096-3203.2023.06.025
引用本文: 宋家康, 赵建勇, 孙海霞, 王华雷, 年珩, 张森. 基于多目标协同训练的风电功率预测提升算法[J]. 电力工程技术, 2023, 42(6): 232-240. DOI: 10.12158/j.2096-3203.2023.06.025
SONG Jiakang, ZHAO Jianyong, SUN Haixia, WANG Hualei, NIAN Heng, ZHANG Sen. Wind power prediction and improvement algorithm based on multi-objective collaborative training[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology, 2023, 42(6): 232-240. DOI: 10.12158/j.2096-3203.2023.06.025
Citation: SONG Jiakang, ZHAO Jianyong, SUN Haixia, WANG Hualei, NIAN Heng, ZHANG Sen. Wind power prediction and improvement algorithm based on multi-objective collaborative training[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology, 2023, 42(6): 232-240. DOI: 10.12158/j.2096-3203.2023.06.025

基于多目标协同训练的风电功率预测提升算法

Wind power prediction and improvement algorithm based on multi-objective collaborative training

  • 摘要: “双碳”目标下,电力系统加速转型,风电预测技术对构建高比例新能源的新型电力系统具有重要意义。为提升风电功率预测的准确性和鲁棒性,文中提出一种基于多目标协同训练的数值天气预报(numerical weather predicition,NWP)隐式校正算法。首先,分析了NWP校正的必要性和基于NWP显式校正的二步预测法存在的问题;然后,针对二步预测法存在的问题,基于多目标协同训练的优化方式利用神经网络进行NWP隐式校正,以端到端的方式训练模型,同时实现NWP隐式校正和风电功率预测的功能。结合某风电场实测数据开展具体算例分析,证明了所提算法对短期及中长期风电功率预测均有提升作用。此外,该算法仅需1个网络且避免了二次计算,节省了计算存储成本。

     

    Abstract: Under the ′dual carbon′ goal, the transformation of the power system is accelerating, and wind power prediction technology is of great significance to the construction of a new power system with a high proportion of new energy. In order to improve the accuracy and robustness of wind power prediction, an numerical weather predicition (NWP) implicit correction algorithm based on multi-objective collaborative training is proposed. Firstly, the necessity of NWP correction and the problems of the two-step prediction method based on NWP explicit correction are analyzed. Then, aiming at the problems existing in the two-step prediction method, the optimization method based on multi-objective collaborative training uses the neural network to perform NWP implicit correction, train the model in an end-to-end manner, and realize the functions of NWP implicit correction and wind power prediction at the same time. Combined with the measured data of a wind farm, the specific calculation case analysis proves that the proposed algorithm has an improving effect on short-term, medium- and long-term wind power prediction. In addition, the algorithm only requires one network and avoids secondary calculation, saving computing and storage costs.

     

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