基于大数据驱动的变压器运行状态评估
Transformer operation state evaluation based on big data drive
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摘要: 为解决无法准确评估运行过程中变压器状态这一难题,本文通过电力变压器在运行过程中积累的海量数据,基于大数据处理和数据挖掘技术,分析其在整个变压器运行过程中各个阶段的异同、变化,得出能反映变压器运行的可靠性因素、成分。同时,通过分析甄选变压器油中溶解气体分析(DGA)数据中特征气体含量、结合变压器在系统中的役龄作为对其运行状态评价的关键影响因素,构建变压器设备运行状态特征分析和风险分析模型,从而实现对变压器运行风险的预测。试验结果证明,本文所提模型能够准确评估变压器运行状态、预测变压器故障率,其结果可为生产人员运维检修人员和电网调度人员提供分析依据及决策指南,对提升电网风险防范能力,保证电力系统安全稳定运行具有一定的价值。Abstract: In order to solve the problem of not being able to accurately assess the transformer status during operation, this paper analyses the similarities, differences and changes in each stage of the entire transformer operation process based on big data processing and data mining technology through the massive data accumulated during the operation of power transformers, and derives the reliability factors and components that can reflect the operation of transformers.At the same time, by analyzing and selecting the characteristic gas content in the DGA data, combining with the service age of the transformer in the system as the key influencing factor for the evaluation of its operation status, the operation status characteristic analysis and risk analysis model of the transformer equipment are constructed, so as to achieve the prediction of transformer operating risk. The experimental results prove that the model proposed in this paper can accurately evaluate the operating status of transformers and predict the failure rate of transformers, and the results can provide analysis basis and decision-making guide for production personnel, operation and maintenance maintenance personnel and power grid dispatchers, which is of certain value to enhance the risk prevention capability of power grid and ensure the safe and stable operation of power system.