配电线路树障隐患预测研究
Research on the Prediction of Hidden Trouble of Distribution Lines
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摘要: 针对树障隐患严重威胁配电线路安全运行的问题,对广东地区配电线路走廊内的典型树种进行调查研究,建立以理查德方程为基础的树高生长预测模型,相关偏差检验结果表明模型精度较高,能精确预测未来一段时间内的树木高度,结合导线弧垂模型,计算不同负荷情况下的导线弧垂大小,建立了树线净空距离模型,通过预测导线与树木的净空距离,实现了树障隐患实时检测和树障风险评估与预测的功能,避免了由树木生长过高和导线弧垂增大所引起的树木闪络故障发生,保障了配电线路安全稳定运行。Abstract: Aiming at the problem that the hidden trouble of tree barrier seriously threatens the safe operation of distribution lines, the typical tree species in the corridor of distribution lines in Guangdong area are investigated and studied. First, a tree height growth prediction model based on Richard’s equation is established, and the correlation deviation test results show that the model is of high accuracy and can accurately predict the tree height in a certain period in future. Then in cembination with a wire sag model, the wire sags under different load conditions are calculated. Finally, a model of clearance between trees and lines is established. By predicting the clearance distance between wire and tree, the functions of real-time detection of hidden trouble of tree barrier and risk assessment and prediction of tree barrier are realized, which avoids the flashover fault caused by the excessive growth of trees and the increase of line sag, and ensures the safe and stable operation of distribution lines.