袁建华, 谈顺, 刘闯. 基于改进灰狼算法优化LSTM的光伏发电功率短期预测[J]. 电力学报, 2024, 39(2): 111-118. DOI: 10.13357/j.dlxb.2024.013
引用本文: 袁建华, 谈顺, 刘闯. 基于改进灰狼算法优化LSTM的光伏发电功率短期预测[J]. 电力学报, 2024, 39(2): 111-118. DOI: 10.13357/j.dlxb.2024.013
YUAN Jian-hua, TAN Shun, LIU Chuang. Short Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on LSTM Optimized by Improved Grey Wolf Algorithm[J]. Journal of Electric Power, 2024, 39(2): 111-118. DOI: 10.13357/j.dlxb.2024.013
Citation: YUAN Jian-hua, TAN Shun, LIU Chuang. Short Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on LSTM Optimized by Improved Grey Wolf Algorithm[J]. Journal of Electric Power, 2024, 39(2): 111-118. DOI: 10.13357/j.dlxb.2024.013

基于改进灰狼算法优化LSTM的光伏发电功率短期预测

Short Term Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on LSTM Optimized by Improved Grey Wolf Algorithm

  • 摘要: 为了提高光伏发电功率短期预测结果的准确性,提出了一种基于改进灰狼(improved grey wolf optimization,IGWO)算法优化长短时记忆(long short term memory,LSTM)神经网络的光伏发电功率短期预测方法。利用余弦相似度寻找相似日,确定光伏发电功率预测的特征量和训练集。采用非线性收敛因子和差分进化策略对GWO算法进行改进,得到收敛性能更好的IGWO算法,采用IGWO算法对LSTM的超参数进行优化,建立了基于IGWO-LSTM的光伏发电功率短期预测模型。使用某小型光伏电站的运行数据进行仿真分析,结果表明,IGWOLSTM模型对晴天、多云和阴雨天气光伏功率预测结果的均方根误差依次为2.11 kW、2.48 kW和2.74 kW,平均相对误差依次为3.43%、4.81%和6.33%,预测效果优于其他方法,验证了所提方法的实用性和有效性。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of short-term prediction results for photovoltaic power generation, a photovoltaic power generation short-term prediction method based on the long short term memory(LSTM) neural network optimized by improved grey wolf optimization(IGWO) algorithm is proposed. The similar days are searched for by using cosine similarity and the feature quantity and training set for photovoltaic power generation prediction are determined. The GWO algorithm is improved by using nonlinear convergence factors and differential evolution strategies. An IGWO algorithm with better convergence performance is obtained. The hyperparameters of LSTM are optimized by using the IGWO algorithm, and a short-term prediction model for photovoltaic power generation based on IGWO-LSTM is established. Simulation analysis is conducted by using the operating data of a small photovoltaic power plant. The results show that the root mean square error of the IGWO-LSTM model for predicting photovoltaic power in sunny, cloudy, and rainy weather is 2. 11 kW, 2. 48 kW and 2. 74 kW, respectively,and the The average relative error is 3. 43%, 4. 81% and 6. 33%, respectively. The prediction effect is superior to other methods, verifying the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

     

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