袁继巧, 刘阳阳, 翟钢军. 近海浮式光伏成本分析与预测[J]. 东北电力技术, 2024, 45(6): 17-20,26.
引用本文: 袁继巧, 刘阳阳, 翟钢军. 近海浮式光伏成本分析与预测[J]. 东北电力技术, 2024, 45(6): 17-20,26.
YUAN Jiqiao, LIU Yangyang, ZHAI Gangjun. Cost Analysis and Forecasting of Offshore Floating Photovoltaics[J]. Northeast Electric Power Technology, 2024, 45(6): 17-20,26.
Citation: YUAN Jiqiao, LIU Yangyang, ZHAI Gangjun. Cost Analysis and Forecasting of Offshore Floating Photovoltaics[J]. Northeast Electric Power Technology, 2024, 45(6): 17-20,26.

近海浮式光伏成本分析与预测

Cost Analysis and Forecasting of Offshore Floating Photovoltaics

  • 摘要: 随着世界能源转型进程加快及我国双碳目标确立,近海浮式光伏已成为重要海洋新能源。针对当前近海浮式光伏发展受制于成本收益不明确、发展前景未知的问题,首先依据内陆浮式光伏成本与涉海技术确定近海浮式光伏分项成本;其次通过计算光伏系统成本的经济指标,多角度分析近海浮式光伏经济效益;最后通过历史经济数据预测近海浮式光伏未来成本。结果表明,近海浮式光伏项目在未来10年成本显著降低,2024年由于补贴政策项目可实现收支平衡,2026年后补贴撤销,项目可独立盈利。

     

    Abstract: With the acceleration of the world’ s energy transition process and the establishment of the China’ s dual carbon targets, offshore floating photovoltaics(PV) have become an important form of marine new energy.According to the current problems of Offshore floating PV development being constrained by unclear cost benefits and unknown development prospects.Firstly, the cost of inland floating PV and sea-related technology to determines the offshore floating PV sub-items cost.Secondly, through calculating the economic index of photovoltaic system cost, it analyzes the offshore floating PV economy from many angles.Finally, it predicts the future cost of offshore floating PV by historical economic data.The results show that the cost reduction of offshore PV projects over the next decade is significant.In 2024,the project will realize revenue and expenditure balance due to the subsidy policy.After 2026 subsidy withdrawal, the project can be profitable independently.

     

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