董昱, 孙大雁, 许丹, 陶洪铸, 李立新. 新型电力系统电力电量平衡的挑战、应对与展望[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025, 45(6): 2039-2056. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240656
引用本文: 董昱, 孙大雁, 许丹, 陶洪铸, 李立新. 新型电力系统电力电量平衡的挑战、应对与展望[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025, 45(6): 2039-2056. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240656
DONG Yu, SUN Dayang, XU Dan, TAO Hongzhu, LI Lixin. Challenges, Response and Prospects for Power Balance in New Power Systems[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2025, 45(6): 2039-2056. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240656
Citation: DONG Yu, SUN Dayang, XU Dan, TAO Hongzhu, LI Lixin. Challenges, Response and Prospects for Power Balance in New Power Systems[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2025, 45(6): 2039-2056. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240656

新型电力系统电力电量平衡的挑战、应对与展望

Challenges, Response and Prospects for Power Balance in New Power Systems

  • 摘要: 新型电力系统构建过程中,风电、光伏等出力不可控机组的装机容量快速增长,源荷双侧不确定性大幅增加,传统源随荷动平衡模式将难以满足新型电力系统的运行要求。该文结合近年来实际运行情况,深入分析由多种要素引发的电力供应不足、新能源消纳困难等电力电量平衡问题;然后,从源荷两侧不确定性增加、系统调节能力不足、电力平衡极端场景频发、大范围余缺互济需求增强等方面,剖析新型电力系统电力电量平衡面临的具体挑战;针对上述问题和挑战,从全网统筹-分布自治的时空协同平衡模式、考虑一次能源供给的发电能力量化评估技术、负荷侧资源精准预测及调节能力量化评估技术、互联大电网统筹平衡优化决策技术、多周期平衡能力分析、预警及预决策技术、多场景平衡决策及控制技术等多个方面,详细介绍支撑新型电力系统电力电量平衡的调控关键技术;进而,介绍基于研究成果研制的全景协同的电力电量平衡决策支撑系统;最后,从市场激励、灵活调控、电碳协同以及多能源系统协同运行等方面,针对新型电力系统电力电量平衡的发展进行展望。

     

    Abstract: During the construction process of new power systems, the installed capacity of generation units is rapidly increasing, leading to a significant surge in uncertainty on both the supply and demand sides. Consequently, the traditional mode of balancing generation with load fluctuations will struggle to meet the operational requirements of these new power systems.. Based on the actual operation conditions in recent years, this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of power balance issues such as insufficient power supply, and difficulties in the absorption of new energy caused by various factors. Then, the specific challenges are analyzed in terms of increasing uncertainty on both sides of the source and load, insufficient system adjustment capabilities, the frequent occurrence of extreme balancing scenarios, and the enhanced large-scale mutual demand. In response to the above challenges, the key control technologies that support the power balance of the new power system are introduced including the spatiotemporal collaborative balance mode with overall coordination-distributed autonomy, quantitative evaluation technology for power generation capacity considering primary energy supply, accurate prediction and regulation capacity quantification technology for load-side resources, integrated balance optimization decision-making technology for interconnected grids, the analysis of multi-cycle balance ability, early warning and pre-decision-making and the multi-scenario balance decision-making and control technology. Furthermore, a panoramic collaborative power balance decision support system based on above research results is introduced. Finally, the development of power balance in new power system is carried out from the aspects of market incentives, flexible regulation, electricity-carbon synergy and multi-energy system collaborative operation.

     

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