赵雅雪, 王旭, 蒋传文, 张津珲, 周子青. 基于最大信息系数相关性分析和改进多层级门控LSTM的短期电价预测方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2021, 41(1): 135-146. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.191731
引用本文: 赵雅雪, 王旭, 蒋传文, 张津珲, 周子青. 基于最大信息系数相关性分析和改进多层级门控LSTM的短期电价预测方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2021, 41(1): 135-146. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.191731
ZHAO Yaxue, WANG Xu, JIANG Chuanwen, ZHANG Jinhui, ZHOU Ziqing. A Novel Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Method Based on Correlation Analysis With the Maximal Information Coefficient and Modified Multi-hierachy Gated LSTM[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2021, 41(1): 135-146. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.191731
Citation: ZHAO Yaxue, WANG Xu, JIANG Chuanwen, ZHANG Jinhui, ZHOU Ziqing. A Novel Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Method Based on Correlation Analysis With the Maximal Information Coefficient and Modified Multi-hierachy Gated LSTM[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2021, 41(1): 135-146. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.191731

基于最大信息系数相关性分析和改进多层级门控LSTM的短期电价预测方法

A Novel Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting Method Based on Correlation Analysis With the Maximal Information Coefficient and Modified Multi-hierachy Gated LSTM

  • 摘要: 为准确预测电力市场中的短期电价,将最大信息系数(maximal information coefficient,MIC)相关性分析与改进多层级门控长短期记忆网络(multi-hierachy gated long short- term memory,MHG-LSTM)相结合,提出一种新型短期电价预测方法。该方法首先对备选序列与预测电价序列做MIC相关性分析,在此基础上筛选备选序列并经小波变换合成神经网络输入序列,有效增加了输入中与预测电价相关的信息密度;其次,对传统LSTM进行创新性改进,提出用两级遗忘门和输入门替换传统的一级门控机构的MHG-LSTM模型,提高了神经网络选择和提取高频电价序列特征的能力。在PJM市场日前电价数据集上对所提方法进行仿真实验,实验结果表明,该方法的预测误差仅为4.506%,相比已有预测方法有效提升了短期电价的预测精度,且具有很强的普适性,可应用于电力市场短期电价预测,为市场参与者和监管机构提供有力决策依据。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately predict short-term electricity price in electricity market, the maximum information coefficient (MIC) correlation analysis and the improved multi-hierarchy gated long short-term memory (MHG-LSTM) was combined to propose a new short-term electricity price forecasting method. The method firstly analyzed the maximum information coefficient correlation between the historical sequences and the predicting electricity price sequence, and then selected candidate sequences and wavelet transform price and load sequences to synthesize input sequences, which effectively increased the information density related to the predicted electricity price in the input; secondly, the method improved the traditional LSTM and built a multi-hierachy gated LSTM model that had two levels of forget gates and input gates instead of the traditional first-level gating mechanism, which improved the ability of neural network to select and extract the characteristics of the electricity price sequence. In this paper, the proposed method was simulated on the PJM market price dataset. The prediction error of this method on experimental dataset was 4.506%. Compared with existing prediction methods, the proposed method greatly improves the prediction accuracy and has great adaptability, which can be applied to the short-term electricity price forecast in electricity market, providing a strong decision-making basis for market participants and regulators.

     

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