基于LSTM-ARIMA的定子绕组温度异常预测

LSTM –ARIMA based prediction of outlet-water temperature difference of stator bars

  • 摘要: 对定子线棒出水温度最大温差(出水温差)进行预测,对于保障汽轮发电机的安全运行具有重要意义。但由于发电机运行过程工况多变,温差时间序列变化模式复杂,趋势预测相对困难。本文使用长短时记忆神经网络(LSTM)对复杂的变化模式进行学习,并进一步融合了差分整合移动平均自回归模型(ARIMA),用以弥补工况多变导致的训练不足的问题,从而对LSTM预测结果进行修正。然后,在型号为QFSN-660-2-22的汽轮发电机运行数据上开展了实验,结果表明该方法预测效果优于单独的LSTM和ARIMA算法,并且可用于短期预警,准确率高于95%。

     

    Abstract: The prediction of outlet-water temperature difference of stator bars (outlet-water temperature difference for short) is of great significance to ensure the safe operation of turbo-generator. However, the working conditions of turbo-generator are variable, resulting in the complex pattern of temperature difference sequence, which makes it difficult to predict the trend accurately. In this paper, long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is used to learn complex patterns. And Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) is further combined to make up for the lack of training caused by variable working conditions, so as to correct the prediction of LSTM. Experiments are carried out on the QFSN-660-2-22 turbo-generator. Results show that this combined method performs better than the single LSTM or ARIMA. This method can be applied to short-term early warning, of which the accuracy is higher than 95%.

     

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