电网企业应急能力动态评估方法及应用

Dynamic Evaluation Method and Application of Power Grid Emergency Capacity

  • 摘要: 为准确实时应对电网企业突发事件的动态变化,提高电网企业的及时应对能力。在对电网企业应急系统要素进行分析的基础上,构建了电网应急能力评估指标体系。从动静态特征的角度进行专家打分,采用层次分析法确定指标主观权重,再利用电网企业的以往数据构建贝叶斯网络确定指标客观动态权重,并用综合动态权重与Vague集模型相结合进行评估。该动态评估方法经实例应用表明,该方法实现了电网企业应急能力实时动态变化,更能反映出实际问题和得出准确科学的结论。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately and real-time respond to the dynamic changes of power grid emergencies and improve the timely response ability of power grid enterprises. Based on the analysis of the elements of the emergency system of power grid enterprises, the evaluation index system of power grid emergency capacity is constructed. From the perspective of dynamic characteristics and static characteristics to invite experts to score the evaluation indicators, the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the subjective weight of the index, then the Bayesian network is constructed by using the previous data of power grid enterprises to determine the objective dynamic weight of the index, finally comprehensive dynamic weight and vague set model are combined to evaluate the power grid emergency capacity. The application of the dynamic evaluation method shows that this method realizes the real-time dynamic change of the emergency capacity of power grid enterprises, can better reflect the actual problems, and draw accurate and scientific conclusions.

     

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