Abstract: With the continuous improvement of the distribution network operation method and the reliability of the user's power supply, the demand for quality service is constantly improved,the precision and accuracy of prearranged power outage in 10kV distribution network also put forward higher requirements,the article starts from the perspective of the reliability data analysis and application of the Ninghe power supply company,combining the actual situation of the distribution network operation in the territorial group,use the big data analysis method,setting up a standard operation time of typical database and comprehensive power failure duration prediction model in 10kV distribution network,improve the standardized operation time evaluation system,reducing the prediction deviation of power supply reliability,providing an intuitionistic and reference method for the prediction deviation control of follow-up power supply reliability.