基于趋势融合NWP风速校正的短期风电功率预测

Short-term Wind Power Prediction Based on Trend-fused NWP Wind Speed Correction

  • 摘要: 近年来,随着风电并网装机容量的不断增长,准确的风电功率预测是保证电力系统安全稳定运行的基础之一。当前基于数据驱动模式的短期功率预测主要输入为数值天气预报,其预报准确性导致了短期功率预测的精度无法得到有效提升。针对这一问题,本文提出了一种基于NWP风速校正的短期风电功率预测方法,利用风速趋势构建新的输入特征,通过趋势和数值的耦合作用建立校正模型以校正NWP风速,并应用于短期风电功率预测中。将本文方法应用于中国蒙西两个风电场,预测精度分别提升了2.3%和1.2%。验证了本文方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, with the steady increase of installed wind capacity in the power grid, accurate wind power forecasting is one of the fundamentals to ensure safe and stable operation of the power system. The current data-driven short-term capacity prediction is mainly based on numerical weather prediction, and the accuracy of this prediction leads to the inability to effectively improve the accuracy of short-term capacity prediction. In response to this issue, this paper proposes a short-term wind power prediction method based on NWP wind speed correction, which utilizes the wind speed trend to construct a new input feature, and establishes a correction model through the coupling effect of the trend and the numerical value in order to correct the NWP wind speed, and applies it to the short-term wind power prediction. Applying the method of this paper to two wind farms in Mengxi, China, the prediction accuracy is improved by 2.3% and 1.2%, respectively. The effectiveness of the method of this paper is verified.

     

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