双碳目标下基于马尔科夫决策的新型配电网多阶段灵活性扩展规划

Multi-stage Flexible Expansion Planning of New Distribution Network Based on Markov Decision Under Dual Carbon Target

  • 摘要: 为提高新型配电网规划灵活性,考虑长期负荷增长不确定性和短期出力波动,提出了一种基于近似动态规划的柔性配电系统可扩展规划模型。首先考虑当前成本和未来可变成本,基于柔性投资策略的马尔可夫决策过程依次进行配电网每个阶段规划进行决策。其次以负荷增长状态下的投资成本、维护成本、生产成本和能源成本最小为目标,以投资利用约束、潮流约束、径向约束和上下限约束为约束条件,构建DSEP模型。然后运用近似动态规划方法分解多阶段优化问题为易于求解的顺序子问题。最后通过对3阶段-24节点和54节点的配电系统的案例研究,验证了该规划模型的可行性和优越性,灵活的可扩展方案实现了可再生能源设备的合理配置。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the flexibility of distribution network planning, this paper proposes a flexible distribution system scalable planning model based on approximate dynamic programming, considering the long-term load growth uncertainty and short-term output fluctuation. Firstly, the current cost and future variable cost are considered, and the Markov decision process based on flexible investment strategy is used to make decisions in each stage of distribution network planning. Secondly, the DSEP model is constructed by minimizing the investment cost, maintenance cost, production cost and energy cost under the condition of load growth, and taking the investment utilization constraint, power flow constraint, radial constraint and upper and lower limit constraint as constraints. Then the approximate dynamic programming method is used to decompose the multi-stage optimization problem into easily solvable sequential subproblems. Finally, the feasibility and superiority of the planning model are verified by the case study of the distribution system with 3 stages and 24 nodes and 5 stages and 54 nodes. The flexible and scalable scheme realizes the reasonable allocation of renewable energy equipment.

     

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