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数据驱动的油浸式变压器状态评估与寿命预测

Data-driven state assessment and life prediction of oil-immersed transformers

  • 摘要: 针对电力变压器的故障诊断和寿命预测问题,采用双向长短期记忆网络(Bi-LSTM) 与基于Weibull分布统计算法实施了一类油浸式变压器的状态评估与寿命预测。首先,从基于机器学习方法与基于统计数据方法两个维度,系统总结了数据驱动的设备故障状态评估与寿命预测方法;其次,建立变压器故障特征评价数据集,基于Bi-LSTM模型,构建油浸式变压器故障评估模型;然后,通过Weibull分布函数拟合油浸式变压器使用寿命,构建了2参数的Weibull分布变压器寿命模型,以某电网公司2012-2021年大型油浸式电力变压器为例实现了油浸式变压器寿命预测。最后,仿真实验验证了方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: This paper addresses the issue of fault diagnosis and life prediction of power transformers, specifically focusing on oil-encroached transformers. We propose a comprehensive approach combining a bi-directional long- and short-term memory network (Bi-LSTM) and a statistical method based on the Weibull distribution to perform state assessment and life prediction. Firstly, we systematically summarize data-driven equipment fault state assessment and life prediction methods from two dimensions: machine learning-based approaches and statistical data-based approaches. Secondly, we determine characteristic state transfer sequences based on the transformer operation mechanism and construct a deep neural network-based oil-intrusive transformer fault assessment model utilizing the Bi-LSTM architecture. Next, we fit the oil-intrusive transformer life using the Weibull distribution function, establish a two-parameter Weibull distribution transformer life model, and demonstrate oil-intrusive transformer life prediction by utilizing data from a large-scale oil-immersed power transformer owned by a power grid company during the period of 2007 to 2016. Finally, we conduct simulation experiments to validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

     

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