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基于IEO-BiLSTM-Attention的短期电力负荷预测

Short-term power load forecasting based on IEO-BiLSTM-Attention Network

  • 摘要: 短期电力负荷数据存在复杂的时序特性和非线性特性,而传统的预测模型难以对短期电力负荷进行准确地预测,因此本文考虑日期、气象等因素对电力负荷的影响,提出一种融合双向长短时记忆神经网络、注意力机制以及改进均衡优化器的短期电力负荷预测模型(IEO-BiLSTM-Attention)。模型采用BiLSTM-Attention神经网络学习序列内部的规律和依赖关系,并且采用改进后的均衡优化器对神经网络模型中的超参数进行优化选择,以提高预测的准确性和模型的性能。其中本文的改进策略将从三方面入手,首先,针对均衡优化器初始化随机性过高导致的初始种群历性低的问题,引入佳点集法初始化种群策略;其次,本文提出黄金莱维引导策略,以改善均衡优化器在迭代后期种群多样性减少的缺陷;最后,本文提出自适应小孔成像反向学习机制,以提升均衡优化器的搜索效率。使用经典基准函数对本文所提算法的性能进行验证,实验结果表明本文所提算法具有更好的寻优精度和收敛速度,此外将本文所提模型应用于电力系统负荷数据集上,实验结果表明本文所提模型具有更好准确性和稳定性。

     

    Abstract: The short-term power load data has complex time series characteristics and nonlinear characteristics, and the traditional prediction model is difficult to accurately predict the short-term power load. Therefore, this paper considers the influence of the date, weather and other factors on the power load, and proposes a fusion bidirectional long-term and short-term power load. Memory Neural Network, Attention Mechanism, and Short-Term Electricity Load Prediction Model with Improved Equalization Optimizer (IEO-BiLSTM-Attention). The model uses the BiLSTM-Attention neural network to learn the internal rules and dependencies of the sequence, and uses an improved balanced optimizer to optimize the selection of hyper-parameters in the neural network model to improve the accuracy of prediction and the performance of the model. Among them, the improvement strategy of this paper will start from three aspects. First, in order to solve the problem of low initial population history caused by the high randomness of the initialization of the equilibrium optimizer, the optimal point set method is introduced to initialize the population strategy; secondly, this paper proposes the Golden Levy guidance strategy , in order to improve the defect of the population diversity reduction of the equilibrium optimizer in the later iteration. Finally, this paper proposes an adaptive keyhole imaging reverse learning mechanism to improve the search efficiency of the equilibrium optimizer. The performance of the algorithm proposed in this paper is verified by using the classical benchmark function. The experimental results show that the algorithm proposed in this paper has better optimization accuracy and convergence speed. In addition, the model proposed in this paper is applied to the power system load data set. The experimental results show that The model proposed in this paper has better accuracy and stability.

     

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