疫情影响下电力需求市场的形态变化研究

Research on the morphological changes of electricity demand market under the impact of the epidemic

  • 摘要: 本文以新冠疫情对我国经济增长动力的冲击为研究切入点,分析了新冠疫情对消费、投资、进出口产生的影响,明确经济增长动能与电力需求之间的关系,对我国电力需求的现状和发展趋势展开分析,从全社会用电量、负荷特性、产业结构视角分析了后疫情时代我国电力需求走势。研究发现:(1)国内“消费”体量大、变化趋势快,对经济增长贡献率高,对用电量增长贡献较小,但对负荷作用明显;(2)投资仍是拉动经济增长的主要动力,固定资产投资对电力需求有显著的放大效应;(3)进出口贸易通过第二产业与国内电力需求建立直接联系,且有一定正向影响。

     

    Abstract: This paper takes the impact of the COVID-19 on China's economic growth momentum as the research entry point, analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on consumption, investment, import and export, clarifies the relationship between economic growth momentum and power demand, analyzes the current situation and development trend of China's power demand, and analyzes the trend of China's power demand in the post epidemic era from the perspective of power consumption, load characteristics, and industrial structure. Research has found that: (1) domestic "consumption" has a large volume and fast changing trend, with a high contribution rate to economic growth and a small contribution to electricity consumption growth, but a significant impact on load; (2) Investment is still the main driving force for economic growth, and fixed assets investment has a significant amplification effect on power demand; (3) Import and export trade establishes a direct connection between the secondary industry and domestic electricity demand, and has a certain positive impact.

     

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