基于多因子考虑的“煤改电”负荷 用能特性分析

Analysis of Energy Consumption Characteristics of Electric Heating Load Based on Multi-factor Consideration

  • 摘要: “煤改电”负荷在冬季电网负荷的占比日益增大,其分布特性对于电力服务、电网调度与电网规划都具有重要的参考价值,是电网建设的最重要依据之一。本文针对“煤改电”台区负载数据进行了挖掘分析,对“煤改电”负荷情况、“煤改电”台区用能的影响因素进行了分析和论述。运用基于XGBoost的方法分析了“煤改电”台区的用能情况,得到不同因素对“煤改电”台区负载率的影响权重排基于主要影响因素的各特性子类。同时,剖析了配变最大负载率和概率密度分布规律。此外,分析不同影响因素对“煤改电”配变负载产生的影响,得出了““煤改电”高适用区域特征和具体范围并提出相关建议。

     

    Abstract: The proportion of electric heating load in winter power grid load is increasing day by day, and its distribution characteristics have important reference value for power service, power grid dispatching and power grid planning, and is one of the most important bases for power grid construction. In this paper, the load data of electric heating station area are mined and analyzed, and the influence factors of electric heating station area energy use are analyzed and discussed. XGBoost based method is used to analyze the energy use of the "coal to electricity" station area, and the weight of different factors on the load rate of the electric heating station area is obtained based on the characteristics of the main influencing factors. At the same time, the distribution rules of maximum load ratio and probability density are analyzed. In addition, the influence of different influencing factors on the distribution load of "coal to electricity" is analyzed, and the characteristics and specific scope of the three types of application areas of "electric heating high, medium and bottom" are delimited and relevant suggestions are put forward.

     

/

返回文章
返回