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基于时空卷积神经网络的海上风电集群爬坡事件预测方法

Power Ramp Event Prediction Method for Offshore Wind Power Cluster Based on Spatiotemporal Convolutional Neural Network

  • 摘要: 随着风电大规模高集成度开发,区域天气过程引发的出力爬坡事件对电网安全运行的影响越发严重,尤其是天气系统更加多变、功率聚合效应更加显著的大规模海上风电集群。但现有研究对于大规模海上风电集群的爬坡事件研究较少,场站出力爬坡的时空相关特性考虑不足,难以提高供电不足风险的预警能力。因此,提出了基于时空卷积神经网络的海上风电集群爬坡事件预测方法。首先建立了包括功率变化速率、持续时间长度等指标的爬坡事件描述指标体系,并分析了不同类型爬坡事件在不同风速下的波动幅度、时移性功率变化特征,实现面向大规模海上风电集群供电不足风险表征的爬坡事件分级分类。然后建立了基于时空卷积神经网络的海上风电基地爬坡事件多目标预测模型,通过图卷积神经网络与时序注意力机制深度挖掘复杂天气过程下海上风电集群内气象变化的时空相关特性,并通过多个卷积解码器并行的多任务学习模式,以多个关联任务的联合反馈提升编码器特征提取效果,实现事件类型和事件属性的同时预测并提升了预测精度。算例分析表明,相较传统方法,所提方法具有更高的预测精度。

     

    Abstract: With the large-scale and highly integrated development of wind power, the impact of output ramp events caused by regional weather processes on the safe operation of the power grid is becoming more and more serious, especially for the large-scale offshore wind power cluster with more changeable weather systems and more significant power aggregation effect. However, the existing research on the ramp-up events of large-scale offshore wind power clusters is less, and the time-space correlation characteristics of station output ramp-up are not fully considered, so it is difficult to improve the early warning ability of power supply shortage risk. Therefore, a power ramp events prediction method for offshore wind power clusters based on a spatiotemporal convolutional neural network is proposed. Firstly, a power ramp events description index system including power change rate, duration, and other indicators is proposed, and the fluctuation amplitude and time-lapse power change characteristics of different types of power ramp events under different wind speeds are analyzed, to realize the classification of power ramp events for the risk characterization of insufficient power supply in large-scale offshore wind power clusters. Then, a multi-objective prediction model based on a spatio-temporal convolutional neural network for slope power ramp events of offshore wind power base is established. The spatiotemporal correlation characteristics of meteorological changes in offshore wind power clusters under complex weather processes are deeply mined by graph convolution neural networks and temporal attention mechanisms. Through the parallel multi-task learning mode of multiple convolutional decoders, the coder feature extraction effect is improved by the joint feedback of multiple associated tasks, which realizes the simultaneous prediction of event types and event attributes and improves the prediction accuracy. The example analysis shows that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional methods.

     

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